A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
